The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic is in different phases in the Italian provinces and, among those that had exceeded the peak in recent days, there are signs of an increase while others are decreasing, in still others the descent has suffered a beat of arrest and a phase of stasis is detected, while in some the peak has not been reached and the growth continues: it is a very heterogeneous map, the one that emerges from the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Calculus Applications’ M. Picone ‘, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
The analysis shows that they have crossed the peak e they are decreasing 16 provinces (Cosenza, Vibo Valentia, Avellino, Benevento, Caserta, Naples, Salerno, Ferrara, Rieti, Sondrio, Campobasso, Sassari, South Sardinia, Catania, Rovigo, Verbano Cusio Ossola); downhill, but weakly, also Crotone and Piacenza.
I am in slowed degrowth 17 other provinces that have crossed the peak (Chieti, Bergamo, Como, Lecco, Lodi, Milan, Monza and Brianza, Pavia, Varese, Agrigento, Caltanissetta, Palermo, Syracuse, Arezzo, Florence, Massa Carrara, Terni).
After crossing the peak and having a braked descent, I’m in one stasis phase 17 provinces (Catanzaro, Rimini, Genoa, Imperia, La Spezia, Savona, Brescia, Cremona, Enna, Ragusa, Trapani, Lucca, Pisa, Pistoia, Prato, Siena and Aosta).
After passing the peak and having a braked descent, the curve is rising in four provinces (Potenza, Viterbo, Messina, Perugia).
After hitting a plateau, it is growing the province of Rome; growing weak are the provinces of Reggio Emilia and Frosinone.
After a slowdown in growth, they reached a plateau 11 provinces (L’Aquila, Pescara, Teramo, Bologna, Forlì-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Ravenna, Latina, Asti and Nuoro).
They are in slow growth and they have almost peaked 5 provinces (Isernia, Alessandria, Cuneo, Novara, Vercelli).
In phase of slowed growth 20 provinces (Bolzano, Reggio Calabria, Udine, Ancona, Ascoli Piceno, Fermo, Macerata, Pesaro and Urbino, Biella, Turin, Bari, Barletta-Andria-Trani, Brindisi, Foggia, Lecce, Taranto, Cagliari, Belluno, Venice, Verona ).
It is in a phase of weak growth Trento, while a abrupt growth in Matera and Oristano.
I am in linear growth 6 provinces (Mantua, Grosseto, Livorno, Padua, Treviso, Vicenza).
They are finally in the process of accelerated growth Gorizia, Pordenone and Trieste.