Covid: Sebastiani (Cnr), the peak of deaths is approaching

As the death curve prepares to peak, likely in the next seven days, the molecular test positive percentage curve marks a halt in the descent and is in a lull, which could be followed by a rise. : this is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).

“After the peak in the percentage of positive molecular tests, reached on January 6, and that of daily admissions to intensive care, reached on January 11, the analysis of the weekly differences reveals that the curve of daily deaths is growing slow and the peak is expected during the next seven days, ”notes the expert.

“After the descent from the peak – continues Sebastiani – for about six days the curve of the percentage of positive molecular tests has been in stasis. This could be the prelude to a new rise, which would not be unexpected due to the (delayed) quantitative effects of the reopening of school activities, as happened in the same period last year “.

This year, he continues, “the situation is different because there are vaccines, but vaccination coverage in the 5-11 age group is approximately 14%, while in the 12-19 age group it is approximately 78%, but with a of third doses among those who made the second equal to about 18% “.

According to the expert, caution is a must in considering the future developments of the epidemic, also in light of what is observed in other European countries: “in the last 5-7 days – he observes – the average curve of the incidence of positive in the United Kingdom has stopped decreasing and is in stasis, together with that of Greece and, again in the same period, the curve of France, after a gradual slowdown in growth, instead of the subsequent decline, typical of a peak, has undergone a ‘soaring’.

The curve of the incidence of positives in Great Britain stopped after the decline (source: Giovann Sebastiani)

According to Sebastiani “these results, together with the stagnation of the percentage of molecular test positives in our country in the last six days, suggest an attitude of prudence in easing the measures to contain the spread of the epidemic”.

As the death curve prepares to peak, probably in the next seven days, the positive percentage curve to molecular tests marks a halt in the descent and it is in a phase of stasis, which could be followed by a rise: this is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculus ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).

“After the peak in the percentage of positive molecular tests, reached on January 6, and that of daily admissions to intensive care, reached on January 11, the analysis of the weekly differences reveals that the curve of daily deaths is growing slow and during the next seven days the peak is expected, ”observes the expert.

“After the descent from the peak – continues Sebastiani – for about six days the positive percentage curve to molecular tests is in the doldrums. This could be the prelude to a new ascent, which would not be unexpected because of the effects quantities (delayed) the reopening of school activities, as happened in the same period last year “. This year, he continues, “the situation is different because there are vaccines, but vaccination coverage in the 5-11 age group is approximately 14%, while in the 12-19 age group it is approximately 78%, but with a of third doses among those who made the second equal to about 18% “.

According to the expert, caution is a must in considering the future developments of the epidemic, also in light of what is observed in other European countries: “in the last 5-7 days – he observes – the average curve of the incidence of positive in the United Kingdom has stopped decreasing and is in stasis, together with that of Greece and, again in the same period, the curve of France, after a gradual slowdown in growth, instead of subsequent descent, typical of a peak, has undergone a surge “. According to Sebastiani “these results, together with the stagnation of the percentage of molecular test positives in our country in the last six days, suggest an attitude of prudence in easing the measures to contain the spread of the epidemic”.


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