First signs of growth in the percentage of positive molecular tests detected at national level, but which will have to be confirmed in the coming days; the curve of total positives decreases after the peak, but increases in some provinces; the peak of deaths has been reached: this is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
The analysis of the weekly differences “reveals initial signs of growth in the percentage of positive molecular tests; the data of the next few days – notes the expert – will be useful to understand if it is a trend or of random fluctuations”. The same type analysis on the curve of total positives, he continues, “shows that the peak was reached on January 13 and we are now in a downward phase”.
At the provincial level, “there are situations where the incidence is growing; some of these provinces are contiguous, such as Grosseto, Livorno, Viterbo and Rome. Another cluster is formed by Gorizia and Trieste; there is also Pordenone, even if it is not bordering on the first two “.
For Sebastiani “it should be noted that the difference between the value of the total number of cases in yesterday’s bulletin and the day before exceeds the number of cases published yesterday by about 25,000 units”. The cause is in a “recount of cases by Veneto, referring to the entire pandemic period and of little use as they are all assigned to a single day. It would be advisable – he observes – not to take this into account in the individual totals of the two types of tests, in order to allow separate analysis of the trend “.
With regard to hospitalizations, “the average number of admissions to intensive care continues the descent that began on January 11 and the occupation of ordinary wards is approximately 30.5%, and increases with a growth rate of approximately 0.20% per day, while that in intensive care is about 17.5% and shows a negligible growth with an average rate of increase, equal to about 0.01% per day “.
Finally, with regard to deaths, Sebastiani notes that, “even if yesterday’s figure increased by over one hundred units compared to the previous day, probably due to a lack of registration in recent days, the analysis of the weekly differences reveals reaching the peak yesterday. A more precise location will be possible with the data for the next few days “.